On M-stationary points for a stochastic equilibrium problem under equilibrium constraints in electricity spot market modeling

Modeling several competitive leaders and followers acting in an electricity market leads to coupled systems of mathematical programs with equilibrium constraints, called equilibrium problems with equilibrium constraints (EPECs). We consider a simplified model for competition in electricity markets under uncertainty of demand in an electricity network as a (stochastic) multi-leader-follower game. First order necessary conditions are developed for the corresponding stochastic EPEC based on a result of Outrata [17]. For applying the general result an explicit representation of the co-derivative of the normal cone mapping to a polyhedron is derived (Proposition 3.2). Later the co-derivative formula is used for verifying constraint qualifications and for identifying M-stationary solutions of the stochastic EPEC if the demand is represented by a finite number of scenarios

Problem-based optimal scenario generation and reduction in stochastic programming

Scenarios are indispensable ingredients for the numerical solution of stochastic programs. Earlier approaches to optimal scenario generation and reduction are based on stability arguments involving distances of probability measures. In this paper we review those ideas and suggest to make use of stability estimates based only on problem specific data. For linear two-stage stochastic programs we show that the problem-based approach to optimal scenario generation can be reformulated as best approximation problem for the expected recourse function which in turn can be rewritten as a generalized semi-infinite program. We show that the latter is convex if either right-hand sides or costs are random and can be transformed into a semi-infinite program in a number of cases. We also consider problem-based optimal scenario reduction for two-stage models and optimal scenario generation for chance constrained programs. Finally, we discuss problem-based scenario generation for the classical newsvendor problem

Optimal Power Generation under Uncertainty via Stochastic Programming

A power generation system comprising thermal and pumped-storage hydro plants is considered. Two kinds of models for the cost-optimal generation of electric power under uncertain load are introduced: (i) a dynamic model for the short-term operation and (ii) a power production planning model. In both cases, the presence of stochastic data in the optimization model leads to multi-stage and two-stage stochastic programs, respectively. Both stochastic programming problems involve a large number of mixed-integer (stochastic) decisions, but their constraints are loosely coupled across operating power units. This is used to design Lagrangian relaxation methods for both models, which lead to a decomposition into stochastic single unit subproblems. For the dynamic model a Lagrangian decomposition based algorithm is described in more detail. Special emphasis is put on a discussion of the duality gap, the efficient solution of the multi-stage single unit subproblems and on solving the dual problem by bundle methods for convex nondifferentiable optimization

Metric regularity and quantitative stability in stochastic programs with probabilistic constraints

Necessary and sufficient conditions for metric regularity of (several joint) probabilistic constraints are derived using recent results from nonsmooth analysis. The conditions apply to fairly general nonconvex, nonsmooth probabilistic constraints and extend earlier work in this direction. Further, a verifiable sufficient condition for quadratic growth of the objective function in a more specific convex stochastic program is indicated and applied in order to obtain a new result on quantitative stability of solution sets when the underlying probability distribution is subjected to perturbations. This is used to establish a large deviation estimate for solution sets when the probability measure is replaced by empirical ones

Stability of solutions to chance constrained stochastic programs

Perturbations of convex chance constrained stochastic programs are considered the underlying probability distributions of which are r-concave. Verifiable sufficient conditions are established guaranteeing Hölder continuity properties of solution sets with respect to variations of the original distribution. Examples illustrate the potential, sharpness and limitations of the results

Problem-based optimal scenario generation and reduction in stochastic programming

Scenarios are indispensable ingredients for the numerical solution of stochastic programs. Earlier approaches to optimal scenario generation and reduction are based on stability arguments involving distances of probability measures. In this paper we review those ideas and suggest to make use of stability estimates based only on problem specific data. For linear two-stage stochastic programs we show that the problem-based approach to optimal scenario generation can be reformulated as best approximation problem for the expected recourse function which in turn can be rewritten as a generalized semi-infinite program. We show that the latter is convex if either right-hand sides or costs are random and can be transformed into a semi-infinite program in a number of cases. We also consider problem-based optimal scenario reduction for two-stage models and optimal scenario generation for chance constrained programs. Finally, we discuss problem-based scenario generation for the classical newsvendor problem

Discrepancy distances and scenario reduction in two-stage stochastic integer programming

Polyhedral discrepancies are relevant for the quantitative stability of mixed-integer two-stage and chance constrained stochastic programs. We study the problem of optimal scenario reduction for a discrete probability distribution with respect to certain polyhedral discrepancies and develop algorithms for determining the optimally reduced distribution approximately. Encouraging numerical experience for optimal scenario reduction is provided

On quantitative stability in infinite-dimensional optimization under uncertainty

The vast majority of stochastic optimization problems require the approximation of the underlying probability measure, e.g., by sampling or using observations. It is therefore crucial to understand the dependence of the optimal value and optimal solutions on these approximations as the sample size increases or more data becomes available. Due to the weak convergence properties of sequences of probability measures, there is no guarantee that these quantities will exhibit favorable asymptotic properties. We consider a class of infinite-dimensional stochastic optimization problems inspired by recent work on PDE-constrained optimization as well as functional data analysis. For this class of problems, we provide both qualitative and quantitative stability results on the optimal value and optimal solutions. In both cases, we make use of the method of probability metrics. The optimal values are shown to be Lipschitz continuous with respect to a minimal information metric and consequently, under further regularity assumptions, with respect to certain Fortet-Mourier and Wasserstein metrics. We prove that even in the most favorable setting, the solutions are at best Hölder continuous with respect to changes in the underlying measure. The theoretical results are tested in the context of Monte Carlo approximation for a numerical example involving PDE-constrained optimization under uncertainty.Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659Peer Reviewe

Are quasi-Monte Carlo algorithms efficient for two-stage stochastic programs?

Quasi-Monte Carlo algorithms are studied for designing discrete approximations of two-stage linear stochastic programs with random right-hand side and continuous probability distribution. The latter should allow for a transformation to a distribution with independent marginals. The two-stage integrands are piecewise linear, but neither smooth nor lie in the function spaces considered for QMC error analysis. We show that under some weak geometric condition on the two-stage model all terms of their ANOVA decomposition, except the one of highest order, are continuously differentiable and that first and second order ANOVA terms have mixed first order partial derivatives. Hence, randomly shifted lattice rules (SLR) may achieve the optimal rate of convergence not depending on the dimension if the effective superposition dimension is at most two. We discuss effective dimensions and dimension reduction for two-stage integrands. The geometric condition is shown to be satisfied almost everywhere if the underlying probability distribution is normal and principal component analysis (PCA) is used for transforming the covariance matrix. Numerical experiments for a large scale two-stage stochastic production planning model with normal demand show that indeed convergence rates close to the optimal are achieved when using SLR and randomly scrambled Sobol' point sets accompanied with PCA for dimension reduction